← Back to industry reportSample analysis · CPSP

Sample scenario controls

Scenario

Sovereignty

Phase

Today only

Stress test

Value capture · Nova Scotia / East Coast · A Transition · unconstrained

How much can Nova Scotia capture — and what has to be true?

Floor is what is committed or locked to the region today. Base adds cut-1 candidates at their win probability. Ceiling adds cuts 2–3 that meet the phase window, discounted. Every figure is a range that traces to a benchmark row. No single “the region will capture $X” number renders without its range and basis.

Floor · cumulative

C$7.7B–C$15.3B

committed / locked to region · undiscounted CAD

Base · cumulative

C$9.7B–C$19.3B

floor + cut 1 at win-probability A 0.5 · B 0.25 · C 0.1

Ceiling · cumulative

C$10.0B–C$20.0B

base + cuts 2–3 meeting the window, ×0.5

Addressable envelope

C$28.7B–C$57.4B

Σ package envelopes across phases · no correlation modelling (E8)

Per phase and cumulative

Floor · base · ceiling

Dark = floor range · mid = base range · light = ceiling range · grey = full envelope · black tick = base point. Source: benchmark register rows 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10 · as of 2026-09-10 · undiscounted C$.

MLU dependency. C$1.6B of the MLU-era range sits above the floor and depends on the S5 engineering base built during Transition. Build S5 engineering depth in the 2030s or lose the 2050s.

Every number traces to a row

Benchmark register

10 rows. The converter refuses an envelope without a benchmark source and an allocation method.

Ranked by value at stake, then deadline

What has to be true · 54 conditions

1provinceControlled work areas can be financed and built

2 packages · open

C$5.0Bby 2034

2firmA sub-safe / class path exists in NS

1 package · open

C$3.8Bby 2034

3provinceCertified welders / fitters pipeline exists

1 package · open

C$3.8Bby 2034

4federalAnchor docking contract

1 package · open

C$3.8Bby 2034

5provinceEast-coast site

1 package · open

C$3.8Bby 2034

6primeSub-safe qualification

1 package · open

C$3.8Bby 2034

7primeJV with NS yard

1 package · open

C$3.8Bby 2034

8federalAnchor contract

1 package · open

C$3.8Bby 2034

9firmA CGP path exists in NS

2 packages · open

C$1.8Bby 2034

10firmA CWB + class welding path exists in NS

1 package · open

C$1.3Bby 2034

11provinceCertified welders pipeline exists

1 package · open

C$1.3Bby 2034

12firmA sub-safe / class welding path exists in NS

1 package · open

C$1.3Bby 2034

Generated from the pathway dimensions and pull requirements behind every base→ceiling contributor, deduplicated. Owner type is inferred: certification and plant → firm; skills and site → province; anchor contract and ITB credit → federal.

Curated sample analysis · as of 2026-09-10. Source attributions and benchmark estimates require review.