← Back to industry reportSample analysis · CPSP
Sample scenario controls
Scenario
Sovereignty
Phase
Stress test
CPSP · Nova Scotia / East Coast lens · A Transition · unconstrained
Build in Kiel → a Canadian chain that is mostly unformed → six boats sustained in Halifax for fifty years.
Over a programme that will run for roughly the next fifty years, how much of the value can Nova Scotia actually capture — and what has to be true for that to happen?
~100Programme frame · C$ billion (construction, infrastructure, initial sustainment)
up to 12Boats · Type 212CD
6East-coast boats · maintained and serviced in Halifax
2034First deliveries · first four boats
477 daysuntil the ITB window closes · end-2027
Canadian chain
Binds on S3 Infrastructure under A Transition — Jetties & docking halls (Halifax): funded capacity not available by 2033 (−100%). Next: S5 In-service support (−67%).Open S3 →
EnablersWorkforce · firmDigital & OT · 100% shortEPCM & clearances · 100% short
firmpartialfunded, not producingopen, candidatesgap
S3 · stage 3
Infrastructure
Jetties, docking halls, sheds and training facilities in Halifax; marine civil works. Tier 1 anchored by the TKMS–EllisDon teaming; tier 2 open.
Jetties & docking halls (Halifax)
funded · committed, not yet producing
0 / 2 docking halls ready−100%
Training & maintenance facility build
funded · committed, not yet producing
0 / 1 docking halls ready−100%
Marine civil works & trades packages
pivot only
no supply networkSourcing by jurisdiction
Concentration
No single-source flag.Funding & teaming
TKMS–EllisDon facilities (teaming) · no amount announced
Where the chain breaks · A · unconstrained
S3 · Jetties & docking halls (Halifax)
funded capacity not available by 2033
−100%S5 · Design-authority & class support
demand 0.3 share of engineering FTE vs available 0.1
−67%Open positions · 4 · 0 national gaps
S2 · Outfitting & Canadian-content components
2 candidates on the ladder
S3 · Marine civil works & trades packages
4 candidates on the ladder
E2 · Yard OT security & digital engineering
1 candidate on the ladder
E3 · Cleared facility design & registration
1 candidate on the ladder
Programme clock
2034204020552067
Build in Kiel; Halifax facilities
Transition
Steady state
MLU era
ITB window — obligations set at contract
2026 · TKMS preferred supplier2034 · First four boatsCurated sample analysis · as of 2026-09-10. Source attributions and benchmark estimates require review.