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Sample scenario controls
Scenario
Sovereignty
Phase
Stress test
S1 · stage 1 of 9 · buy · captive governance · Specialized Manufacturing

Platform build & major subsystems

Foreign-dominated: TKMS Kiel and its subsystem OEMs, rendered as the allied imports block feeding the Canadian chain. Basis: German–Norwegian parent programme.

Firm todaySingle source · facilitySingle source · province

Pressure hull & platform integration Firm today

Type 212CD hull sections, integration and launch at Kiel; Norwegian and German boats share the line.

Buyer program govRecurrence per boatCertifications class (DNV), NATO STANAGPhases transition · steady stateFaC Act nowSingle source · facility
Envelope · transition
C$4.4B – C$8.8B
base C$6.3B · 0% addressable from NS
CPSP programme frame · row 1
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 1 · demand 1 boats
Redundancy (separate from capacity)
1 producing source vs target 1 — adequate
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9).
Sourcing mix
CA 0%sourcing mix
Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1
Type 212CD platform build & integration · 1 boats/yr
ProducingImport

Combat management system (ORCCA) Firm today

kta Naval Systems ORCCA CMS — Kongsberg / TKMS / Atlas Elektronik joint venture.

Buyer primeRecurrence per boatCertifications ITAR-free design, NATO SECRETPhases transition · steady stateFaC Act nowSingle source · facility
Envelope · transition
C$588M – C$1.2B
base C$840M · 0% addressable from NS
CPSP programme frame · row 1
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 1 · demand 1 boats
Redundancy (separate from capacity)
1 producing source vs target 1 — adequate
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9).
Sourcing mix
CA 0%sourcing mix
Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1
ORCCA combat management system · 1 boats/yr · parent-programme basis (W6)
ProducingImport
T2
Sonar-to-CMS integration (tier 2 to kta) · tier 2 under kta (parent-programme basis)
T2
Navigation sonar & CMS components (tier 2 to kta) · parent-programme basis (W6)

Diesel-electric & AIP propulsion Firm today

MTU 4000-series diesels, fuel-cell air-independent propulsion, permanent-magnet motor.

Buyer primeRecurrence per boatCertifications class (DNV)Phases transition · steady stateFaC Act nowSingle source · province
Envelope · transition
C$735M – C$1.5B
base C$1.1B · 0% addressable from NS
CPSP programme frame · row 1
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 2 · demand 1 boats
Redundancy (separate from capacity)
2 producing sources vs target 1 — adequate
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9).
Sourcing mix
CA 0%sourcing mix
Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1
MTU 4000-series diesels · 1 boats/yr · parent-programme basis (W6)
ProducingImport
T1
Fuel-cell AIP & PM motor integration · 1 boats/yr · parent-programme basis (W6)
ProducingImport

Sonar suite & optronic masts Firm today

Bow/flank arrays, towed array, navigation sonar, optronic masts.

Buyer primeRecurrence per boatCertifications NATO SECRETPhases transition · steady stateFaC Act nowSingle source · province
Envelope · transition
C$539M – C$1.1B
base C$770M · 0% addressable from NS
CPSP programme frame · row 1
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 2 · demand 1 boats
Redundancy (separate from capacity)
2 producing sources vs target 1 — adequate
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9).
Sourcing mix
CA 0%sourcing mix
Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1
Sonar suite · 1 boats/yr · parent-programme basis (W6)
ProducingImport
T2
EW / radar (tier 2 to Atlas) · parent-programme basis (W6)
T1
Optronic masts · 1 boats/yr · parent-programme basis (W6)
ProducingImport

Lithium-ion main battery modules Firm today

Main battery modules — flagged as the one S1 thread followed to tier 3 because Canadian-content candidacy is plausible.

Buyer primeRecurrence per boatCertifications class (DNV) battery safety, UN 38.3Phases transition · steady state · mluFaC Act nowSingle source · facility
Envelope · transition
C$294M – C$588M
base C$420M · 5% addressable from NS
CPSP programme frame · row 1
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 1 · demand 1 boats
Redundancy (separate from capacity)
1 producing source vs target 1 — adequate
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9).
Sourcing mix
CA 0%sourcing mix
Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1
Li-ion main battery modules (parent-programme supplier) · 1 boats/yr · parent-programme basis (W6)
ProducingImport
Opportunity ladder · 1 candidates · pursuit tier computed, relationship never enters
Cut 1Already in the frame
product
NL · Mount Pearl · mid · fit rank #1
Pressure-tolerant subsea battery experience → main-battery module Canadian content
high difficulty · 24–36+ months · OEM licence, class battery-safety qualification
B

Curated sample analysis · as of 2026-09-10. Source attributions and benchmark estimates require review.