Sample scenario controls
Scenario Sovereignty S2 · stage 2 of 9 · partner · captive governance · Specialized Manufacturing
Canadian build content & subsystems
ITB-driven components, hull segments, outfitting and possible battery content. Largely unformed until obligations are set at contract (end-2027).
Pivot onlySingle source · facility
Hull segments & complex assemblies Funded / building
Selected submarine sections and complex assemblies manufactured in Canada under the TKMS–Marmen teaming.
Buyer primeRecurrence per boatCertifications class (DNV) welding, CGPPhases transition · steady stateFaC Act now
Envelope · transition
C$588M – C$1.2B
base C$840M · 10% addressable from NS
CPSP programme frame · row 1
Obligations pending (W4)
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 8 · demand 8 % of boat value · committed, not yet producing 8 Redundancy (separate from capacity)0 producing sources vs target 2 — no backup
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9). Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1Selected hull sections & complex assemblies — selected sections; scope set at contract · 8 % of boat value · from 2030
Committed, not yet producing T2Open position — no second source; redundancy target not met1 candidate on the ladder below
T2Open position — no second source; redundancy target not met1 candidate on the ladder below
Opportunity ladder · 1 candidates · pursuit tier computed, relationship never enters
Cut 2Could get there — with the lift
productNS · Dartmouth · mid · fit rank #1
Qualify class-certified welding for hull inserts and non-pressure structures
high difficulty
Ready2030 · misses 2028 window
C
Outfitting & Canadian-content components Pivot only
Cabling, piping, habitability, consoles and other ITB-eligible content — quantum unknown until contract.
Buyer primeRecurrence per boatCertifications CGPPhases transition · steady stateFaC Watch
Envelope · transition
C$392M – C$784M
base C$560M · 30% addressable from NS
CPSP programme frame · row 1
Obligations pending (W4)
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 0 · demand 10 % of boat valueShortfall 100%
Redundancy (separate from capacity)0 producing sources vs target 2 — no backup
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9). Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1Open position — no producer today2 candidates on the ladder below
T1Open position — no producer today2 candidates on the ladder below
Opportunity ladder · 2 candidates · pursuit tier computed, relationship never enters
Cut 2Could get there — with the lift
functionalNS · Lunenburg · sme · fit rank #1
Outfitting sub-assemblies (habitability, consoles) for Marmen sections
medium difficulty
Ready2028 · meets 2028 window
A
Cut 3Must be attracted — with the pull
chain entryON · Mississauga · mid · fit rank #2
Establish marine Li-ion module assembly in Atlantic Canada
high difficulty
- Pull: anchor contract via ITB credit
- Pull: OEM technology licence
- Pull: NS site with controlled-goods registration
B
CMS software adaptation (Canada) Firm today
Canadian ORCCA adaptation, integration and centre of excellence.
Buyer primeRecurrence per boatCertifications NATO SECRET facility, CGPPhases transition · steady state · mluFaC InvestSingle source · facility
Envelope · transition
C$196M – C$392M
base C$280M · 5% addressable from NS
ORCCA Canadian content · row 10
Obligations pending (W4)
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 5 · demand 5 % of boat value Redundancy (separate from capacity)1 producing source vs target 2 — no backup
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9). Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1ORCCA Canadian adaptation; CMS centre of excellence · 5 % of boat value
Producing T2Open position — no second source; redundancy target not metno candidate identified — national gap
Curated sample analysis · as of 2026-09-10. Source attributions and benchmark estimates require review.