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Sample scenario controls
Scenario
Sovereignty
Phase
Stress test
S9 · stage 9 of 9 · partner · captive governance · Digital Systems

Mid-life upgrade & modernization

Combat-system refresh, obsolescence re-engineering and re-integration in the 2050s — effectively a second programme. Sovereign capture depends on the S5 engineering base built during Transition.

Pivot only

Combat-system refresh & re-integration Pivot only

Mid-life combat-system refresh and re-integration — the second programme.

Buyer program govRecurrence per mluCertifications NATO SECRET, CGPPhases mluFaC Act now
Not applicable in transition
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 0 · demand 0 boats
Redundancy (separate from capacity)
0 producing sources vs target 1 — no backup
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9).
Sourcing mix
No supply network
Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1Open position — no producer today
2 candidates on the ladder below
Opportunity ladder · 2 candidates · pursuit tier computed, relationship never enters
Cut 1Already in the frame
functional
ON · Ottawa · mid · fit rank #1
Combat-system refresh from the Ottawa centre of excellence
medium difficulty · 24–36+ months · Depends on S5 engineering base built in the 2030s
B
Cut 2Could get there — with the lift
functional
ON · Ottawa · large · fit rank #2
Re-integration engineering (Dartmouth)
high difficulty
Certification
36 mo
Capital
24 mo
Plant
24 mo
Skills
60 mo
Ready2032 · misses 2031 window
B

Obsolescence re-engineering Pivot only

Re-engineering of obsolete subsystems and re-qualification.

Buyer primeRecurrence per mluCertifications CGPPhases mluFaC Act now
Not applicable in transition
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 0 · demand 0 boats
Redundancy (separate from capacity)
0 producing sources vs target 1 — no backup
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9).
Sourcing mix
No supply network
Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1Open position — no producer today
1 candidate on the ladder below
Opportunity ladder · 1 candidates · pursuit tier computed, relationship never enters
Cut 1Already in the frame
functional
ON · Ottawa · large · fit rank #1
Obsolescence re-engineering of UW systems
medium difficulty · 24–36+ months · S5 component-repair base
A

Curated sample analysis · as of 2026-09-10. Source attributions and benchmark estimates require review.