Sample scenario controls
Scenario Sovereignty S3 · stage 3 of 9 · build · relational governance
Infrastructure
Jetties, docking halls, sheds and training facilities in Halifax; marine civil works. Tier 1 anchored by the TKMS–EllisDon teaming; tier 2 open.
Pivot onlyBinding under A: −100%
Jetties & docking halls (Halifax) Funded / building Binding constraint
Submarine jetties, covered docking hall and shore power at HMC Dockyard Halifax.
Buyer program govRecurrence one timeCertifications Secret facility clearance, CGPPhases transitionFaC Act now
Envelope · transition
C$588M – C$1.2B
base C$840M · 70% addressable from NS
Submarine jetty & docking-hall capex · row 7
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 0 · demand 2 docking halls ready · committed, not yet producing 2Shortfall 100%
Redundancy (separate from capacity)0 producing sources vs target 1 — no backup
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9). Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1Jetties & docking hall design-build (teaming) — teaming announced; contract scope pending · 2 docking halls · from 2034
Committed, not yet producing T2Open position — no second source; redundancy target not metno candidate identified — national gap
Training & maintenance facility build Funded / building
Submarine school and maintenance/training facility within the announced TKMS–EllisDon scope.
Buyer primeRecurrence one timeCertifications Secret facility clearancePhases transitionFaC Act now
Envelope · transition
C$221M – C$441M
base C$315M · 70% addressable from NS
Submarine jetty & docking-hall capex · row 7
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 0 · demand 1 docking halls ready · committed, not yet producing 1Shortfall 100%
Redundancy (separate from capacity)0 producing sources vs target 1 — no backup
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9). Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1Training & maintenance facility design-build (teaming) · 1 facilities · from 2034
Committed, not yet producing T2Open position — no second source; redundancy target not metno candidate identified — national gap
Marine civil works & trades packages Pivot only
Tier-2 packages under the facilities contractor: piling, marine concrete, mechanical & electrical fit-out.
Buyer tier1Recurrence one timeCertifications CGP (some packages)Phases transitionFaC Watch
Envelope · transition
C$294M – C$588M
base C$420M · 85% addressable from NS
Submarine jetty & docking-hall capex · row 7
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 0 · demand 6 docking halls readyShortfall 100%
Redundancy (separate from capacity)0 producing sources vs target 1 — no backup
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9). Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1Open position — no producer today4 candidates on the ladder below
Opportunity ladder · 4 candidates · pursuit tier computed, relationship never enters
Cut 1Already in the frame
processNS · Dartmouth · mid · fit rank #1
Structural steel for docking hall and jetty superstructure
low difficulty · < 12 months · Pre-qualification with facilities contractor
A
Cut 2Could get there — with the lift
processNS · Dartmouth · sme · fit rank #2 · placeholder record
Electrical fit-out packages under the facilities contractor
medium difficulty
Ready2028 · meets 2031 window
B
Cut 3Must be attracted — with the pull
chain entryAB · Edmonton · enterprise · fit rank #3
Marine civil works JV with NS partner
medium difficulty
- Pull: teaming with facilities contractor
- Pull: NS labour agreement
A
chain entryON · Toronto · enterprise · fit rank #4
Marine civil works (piling, marine concrete)
medium difficulty
- Pull: tier-2 package award
- Pull: local trades partnership
B
Curated sample analysis · as of 2026-09-10. Source attributions and benchmark estimates require review.