Sample scenario controls
Scenario Sovereignty S4 · stage 4 of 9 · build · relational governance · In-Service Support
Deep maintenance & MRO
Docking work periods for the six east-coast boats. FMF Cape Scott today; TKMS–Seaspan sustainment enterprise announced.
Firm (partial)Single source · facility
Dry-docking & hull survey Firm (partial)
Docking work periods: hull survey, pressure-hull inspection, tank work, structural repair.
Buyer tier1Recurrence per dockingCertifications sub-safe / class, CGP, Secret facilityPhases transition · steady state · mluFaC Act nowSingle source · facility
Envelope · transition
C$294M – C$588M
base C$420M · 90% addressable from NS
Victoria-class ISS run-rate · row 2
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 1 · demand 1 docking lines · committed, not yet producing 1 Redundancy (separate from capacity)1 producing source vs target 2 — no backup
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9). Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1Fleet maintenance & docking (Victoria class today) — current fleet; 212CD scope unformed · 1 docking lines
Producing T1Integrated sustainment enterprise docking line (announced) · 1 docking lines · from 2036
Committed, not yet producing T2Open position — no second source; redundancy target not met5 candidates on the ladder below
Opportunity ladder · 5 candidates · pursuit tier computed, relationship never enters
Cut 1Already in the frame
functionalNS · Halifax · enterprise · fit rank #1
Second docking line at Halifax Shipyard
medium difficulty · 12–24 months · Sub-safe programme; capacity conflict with River-class build (W7)
A
processNS · Dartmouth · sme · fit rank #2
Underwater hull survey & inspection services
low difficulty · < 12 months · Security clearance; class-inspector partnership
A
Cut 2Could get there — with the lift
functionalNS · Dartmouth · sme · fit rank #3
Docking trades package (sub-safe)
high difficulty
Ready2030 · meets 2031 window
B
Cut 3Must be attracted — with the pull
chain entryQC · Lévis · large · fit rank #4
Second docking operator outside Halifax (redundancy)
high difficulty
- Pull: anchor docking contract
- Pull: east-coast site
- Pull: sub-safe qualification
B
chain entryON · Hamilton · mid · fit rank #5
Docking services entrant via NS yard partnership
high difficulty
- Pull: JV with NS yard
- Pull: anchor contract
B
Battery replacement & handling Firm (partial)
Lithium-ion main battery replacement, handling, storage and disposal.
Buyer tier1Recurrence per dockingCertifications UN 38.3, CGPPhases transition · steady state · mluFaC Act nowSingle source · facility
Envelope · transition
C$74M – C$147M
base C$105M · 60% addressable from NS
Victoria-class ISS run-rate · row 2
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 1 · demand 1 docking lines · committed, not yet producing 1 Redundancy (separate from capacity)1 producing source vs target 2 — no backup
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9). Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1Battery handling (lead-acid today) — lead-acid today; Li-ion handling unformed · 1 docking lines
Producing T1Li-ion battery replacement (enterprise scope) · 1 docking lines · from 2036
Committed, not yet producing T2Open position — no second source; redundancy target not met1 candidate on the ladder below
Opportunity ladder · 1 candidates · pursuit tier computed, relationship never enters
Cut 2Could get there — with the lift
productNS · Dartmouth · micro · fit rank #1 · placeholder record
Li-ion module handling & test in Halifax
high difficulty
Ready2029 · meets 2031 window
B
Structural steel fabrication & repair Firm (partial)
Hull inserts, tank plating, brackets and foundations fabricated to class and sub-safe standards.
Buyer tier1Recurrence per dockingCertifications sub-safe / class welding, CGPPhases transition · steady state · mluFaC Act nowSingle source · facility
Envelope · transition
C$98M – C$196M
base C$140M · 85% addressable from NS
Victoria-class ISS run-rate · row 2
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 1 · demand 1 docking lines · committed, not yet producing 1 Redundancy (separate from capacity)1 producing source vs target 2 — no backup
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9). Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1Structural repair, sub-safe welding — current fleet scope · 1 docking lines
Producing T1Structural fabrication (enterprise scope) · 1 docking lines · from 2036
Committed, not yet producing T2Open position — no second source; redundancy target not met2 candidates on the ladder below
Opportunity ladder · 2 candidates · pursuit tier computed, relationship never enters
Cut 2Could get there — with the lift
productNS · Dartmouth · sme · fit rank #1
Non-pressure structural fabrication to class
medium difficulty
Ready2029 · meets 2031 window
A
productNS · Dartmouth · mid · fit rank #2
Sub-safe structural inserts and foundations
high difficulty
Ready2030 · meets 2031 window
B
Coatings & preservation Firm today
Hull coatings, tank preservation, anechoic tile repair.
Buyer tier1Recurrence per dockingCertifications CGPPhases transition · steady state · mluFaC WatchSingle source · facility
Envelope · transition
C$49M – C$98M
base C$70M · 90% addressable from NS
Victoria-class ISS run-rate · row 2
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 1 · demand 1 docking lines · committed, not yet producing 1 Redundancy (separate from capacity)1 producing source vs target 2 — no backup
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9). Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1Hull coatings & preservation · 1 docking lines
Producing T1Coatings (enterprise scope) · 1 docking lines · from 2036
Committed, not yet producing T2Open position — no second source; redundancy target not met1 candidate on the ladder below
Opportunity ladder · 1 candidates · pursuit tier computed, relationship never enters
Cut 2Could get there — with the lift
processNS · Dartmouth · micro · fit rank #1 · placeholder record
Tank preservation & anechoic tile repair
medium difficulty
Ready2028 · meets 2031 window
A
Valve, pump & hydraulic overhaul Firm today
Hull valves, seawater pumps, hydraulic plant overhaul and test.
Buyer tier1Recurrence per dockingCertifications sub-safe / class, CGPPhases transition · steady state · mluFaC Act nowSingle source · facility
Envelope · transition
C$74M – C$147M
base C$105M · 80% addressable from NS
Victoria-class ISS run-rate · row 2
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 1 · demand 1 docking lines · committed, not yet producing 1 Redundancy (separate from capacity)1 producing source vs target 2 — no backup
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9). Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1Valve, pump & hydraulic overhaul · 1 docking lines
Producing T1Overhaul (enterprise scope) · 1 docking lines · from 2036
Committed, not yet producing T2Open position — no second source; redundancy target not met2 candidates on the ladder below
Opportunity ladder · 2 candidates · pursuit tier computed, relationship never enters
Cut 1Already in the frame
productNS · Chester · sme · fit rank #1
Hydraulic plant overhaul & test
medium difficulty · 12–24 months · Sub-safe QA; CGP
A
Cut 2Could get there — with the lift
processNS · Halifax · micro · fit rank #2 · placeholder record
Hull-valve overhaul under enterprise QA
medium difficulty
Ready2029 · meets 2031 window
B
Curated sample analysis · as of 2026-09-10. Source attributions and benchmark estimates require review.