Value chain map Facilities Fragility × criticality Opportunity ladder Opportunities Value capture Triage · AB/SK What this is not yet Sample scenario controls CPSP 155mm ammo
Scenario A · Transition B · Steady state
Sovereignty Unconstrained Allied only Domestic only
CPSP S5 In-service support ← S4 S6 → S5 · stage 5 of 9 · partner · captive governance · In-Service Support
In-service support & engineering Design-authority support, ILS, obsolescence, configuration management and combat-system support. Engineering centre of gravity is European; the sovereign share is the question.
Single source · province Binding under A: −67% Read·
Sourcing mix · stage roll-up Throughput metric Sovereign support share (responsiveness)
Redundancy target 2 sources per package
Packages 4
Active phase transition
Funding & teaming Victoria In-Service Support Contract extension · 2026-07-20 · C$1,100MFact
Design-authority & class support Binding constraint Design-authority reach-back, class liaison, safety case maintenance.
Buyer program gov Recurrence annual Certifications NATO SECRET, CGP Phases transition · steady state · mlu FaC Invest Read·
Envelope · transition
C$196M – C$392Mbase C$280M · 40% addressable from NS
Allied SSK lifecycle multiple · row 4 Estimate·
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 0.1 · demand 0.3 share of engineering FTE · committed, not yet producing 0.2 · excluded by sovereignty 0.7 Shortfall 67%
Redundancy (separate from capacity) 2 producing sources vs target 2 — adequate
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9). Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1 ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems GmbH Design-authority reach-back (Kiel) · 0.7 share of FTE · design authority is European
Producing Import Read· T1 Fleet Maintenance Facility Cape Scott Class liaison & safety case (RCN) · 0.1 share of FTE
Producing Read· T1 Seaspan ULC Sovereign design-support cell (enterprise) · 0.2 share of FTE · from 2036
Committed, not yet producing Read· Opportunity ladder · 2 candidates · pursuit tier computed, relationship never enters
Cut 1 Already in the frame
BMT Canada Ltd. functional ON · Ottawa · mid · fit rank #1
Sovereign design-support engineering cell
medium difficulty · 12–24 months · Design-authority data licence from TKMS
A Validate before use
Cut 2 Could get there — with the lift
Lengkeek Vessel Engineering Inc. functional NS · Dartmouth · sme · fit rank #2
Naval architecture support to design-support cell
medium difficulty
Ready 2029 · meets 2031 window
B Validate before use
Combat-system software support In-service ORCCA support, patches, capability insertion.
Buyer prime Recurrence annual Certifications NATO SECRET facility, CGP Phases transition · steady state · mlu FaC Monitor Read·
Envelope · transition
C$147M – C$294Mbase C$210M · 20% addressable from NS
Allied SSK lifecycle multiple · row 4 Estimate·
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 0.3 · demand 0.3 share of engineering FTE · excluded by sovereignty 0.7 Redundancy (separate from capacity) 2 producing sources vs target 2 — adequate
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9). Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1 Kongsberg Geospatial Ltd. ORCCA in-service software support (Ottawa) · 0.3 share of FTE
Producing Read· T1 kta naval systems AS CMS reach-back (kta) · 0.7 share of FTE
Producing Import Read· Opportunity ladder · 2 candidates · pursuit tier computed, relationship never enters
Cut 1 Already in the frame
Lockheed Martin Canada Inc. functional ON · Ottawa · large · fit rank #1
CMS support engineering from Dartmouth (adjacent to surface CMS role)
medium difficulty · 12–24 months · ORCCA licence & teaming with Kongsberg Geospatial
B Validate before use
General Dynamics Mission Systems–Canada functional ON · Ottawa · large · fit rank #2
Underwater-warfare software support
medium difficulty · 12–24 months · ORCCA access agreement
B Validate before use
ILS, obsolescence & configuration management Integrated logistics support, obsolescence management and configuration control for the class.
Buyer program gov Recurrence annual Certifications CGP Phases transition · steady state · mlu FaC Monitor Read·
Envelope · transition
C$172M – C$343Mbase C$245M · 60% addressable from NS
Victoria-class ISS run-rate · row 2 Estimate·
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 0.6 · demand 0.5 share of engineering FTE Redundancy (separate from capacity) 2 producing sources vs target 2 — adequate
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9). Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1 Babcock Canada Inc. Victoria-class ILS & configuration management (VISSC) — Victoria class; sunsets with the class (W3) · 0.5 share of FTE
Producing Fact T1 Fleetway Inc. Technical publications & ILS support · 0.1 share of FTE
Producing Read· Opportunity ladder · 2 candidates · pursuit tier computed, relationship never enters
Cut 1 Already in the frame
Thales Canada Inc. functional ON · Ottawa · large · fit rank #1
ISS programme management (AJISS adjacency)
medium difficulty · 12–24 months · Enterprise teaming
B Validate before use
Fleetway Inc. functional NS · Halifax · mid · fit rank #2
Class ILS & technical publications for 212CD
low difficulty · < 12 months · Teaming with enterprise; NATO SECRET facility
B Validate before use
Component repair & engineering services Repair of pumps, motors, electronics and hull fittings; engineering change support.
Buyer tier1 Recurrence annual Certifications CGP Phases transition · steady state · mlu FaC Monitor Single source · province Read·
Envelope · transition
C$123M – C$245Mbase C$175M · 70% addressable from NS
Victoria-class ISS run-rate · row 2 Estimate·
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 0.4 · demand 0.4 share of engineering FTE · committed, not yet producing 0.2 Redundancy (separate from capacity) 2 producing sources vs target 2 — adequate
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9). Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1 Fleet Maintenance Facility Cape Scott Component repair (FMF workshops) · 0.3 share of FTE
Producing Read· T1 IMP Group Ltd. Component repair & engineering (partial) — aerospace-weighted; marine scope partial · 0.1 share of FTE
Producing Read· T1 Seaspan ULC Component repair cell (enterprise) · 0.2 share of FTE · from 2036
Committed, not yet producing Read· Opportunity ladder · 2 candidates · pursuit tier computed, relationship never enters
Cut 1 Already in the frame
IMP Group Ltd. process NS · Halifax · large · fit rank #1
Component repair scope expansion (marine electro-mechanical)
low difficulty · < 12 months · Marine QA scope; enterprise sub-contract
A Validate before use
Cut 2 Could get there — with the lift
Allswater Marine Consultants Ltd. functional NS · Dartmouth · sme · fit rank #2
Engineering change support for component repair
medium difficulty
Ready 2028 · meets 2031 window
B Validate before use
Curated sample analysis · as of 2026-09-10. Source attributions and benchmark estimates require review.