Sample scenario controls
Scenario Sovereignty S6 · stage 6 of 9 · partner · modular governance · In-Service Support
Supply chain & spares logistics
Class spares chain, warehousing, controlled goods, battery and energetics handling.
Firm todaySingle source · facility
Class spares supply & warehousing Firm today
Class spares pipeline, bonded warehousing and kitting for docking periods.
Buyer tier1Recurrence annualCertifications CGP, bonded warehousePhases transition · steady state · mluFaC Monitor
Envelope · transition
C$147M – C$294M
base C$210M · 50% addressable from NS
Victoria-class ISS run-rate · row 2
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 1.8 · demand 0.9 fill rate Redundancy (separate from capacity)2 producing sources vs target 3 — no backup
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9). Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1Victoria-class spares pipeline (VISSC) — Victoria class; sunsets (W3) · 0.9 fill rate
Producing T1Class spares (OEM) · 0.9 fill rate
ProducingImport T2Open position — no second source; redundancy target not met1 candidate on the ladder below
Opportunity ladder · 1 candidates · pursuit tier computed, relationship never enters
Cut 2Could get there — with the lift
processNS · Halifax · micro · fit rank #1 · placeholder record
Bonded controlled-goods warehousing near HMC Dockyard
medium difficulty
Ready2028 · meets 2031 window
B
Controlled-goods & energetics handling Firm today
Controlled-goods custody, battery module storage and energetics handling.
Buyer tier1Recurrence annualCertifications CGP, explosives licencePhases transition · steady state · mluFaC InvestSingle source · facility
Envelope · transition
C$39M – C$78M
base C$56M · 80% addressable from NS
Victoria-class ISS run-rate · row 2
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 0.9 · demand 0.9 fill rate Redundancy (separate from capacity)1 producing source vs target 3 — no backup
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9). Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1Controlled-goods custody & energetics handling · 0.9 fill rate
Producing T2Open position — no second source; redundancy target not met1 candidate on the ladder below
T2Open position — no second source; redundancy target not met1 candidate on the ladder below
Opportunity ladder · 1 candidates · pursuit tier computed, relationship never enters
Cut 2Could get there — with the lift
processNS · Truro · micro · fit rank #1 · placeholder record
Energetics & battery custody
high difficulty
Ready2029 · meets 2031 window
B
Dangerous-goods logistics Firm today
Movement of batteries, energetics and hazardous stores between yard, depot and fleet.
Buyer tier1Recurrence annualCertifications TDG certification, security clearancePhases transition · steady state · mluFaC MonitorSingle source · facility
Envelope · transition
C$29M – C$59M
base C$42M · 80% addressable from NS
Victoria-class ISS run-rate · row 2
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 0.9 · demand 0.9 fill rate Redundancy (separate from capacity)1 producing source vs target 3 — no backup
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9). Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1Dangerous-goods movements (DND) · 0.9 fill rate
Producing T2Open position — no second source; redundancy target not met1 candidate on the ladder below
T2Open position — no second source; redundancy target not met1 candidate on the ladder below
Opportunity ladder · 1 candidates · pursuit tier computed, relationship never enters
Cut 1Already in the frame
processNB · Saint John · mid · fit rank #1
Dangerous-goods marine movements
low difficulty · < 12 months · TDG + security clearance
A
Curated sample analysis · as of 2026-09-10. Source attributions and benchmark estimates require review.