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Sample scenario controls
Scenario
Sovereignty
Phase
Stress test
S7 · stage 7 of 9 · build · market governance · Sensors

Test, trials & certification

Acoustic and magnetic ranging, weapons certification, sea-trial support. National gap today; allied ranges interim.

Firm todaySingle source · facility

Acoustic & magnetic ranging Firm today

Acoustic signature and magnetic ranging for each boat post-docking. No Canadian range today; allied ranges interim.

Buyer program govRecurrence per dockingCertifications Secret facility, CGPPhases transition · steady state · mluFaC WatchSingle source · facility
Envelope · transition
C$59M – C$118M
base C$84M · 70% addressable from NS
Allied SSK lifecycle multiple · row 4
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 6 · demand 2 trials per year
Redundancy (separate from capacity)
1 producing source vs target 1 — adequate
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9).
Sourcing mix
CA 0%shares est.
Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1
Allied acoustic/magnetic ranges (interim) · 6 trials/yr · no Canadian range today
ProducingImport
Opportunity ladder · 4 candidates · pursuit tier computed, relationship never enters
Cut 1Already in the frame
product
NS · Dartmouth · sme · fit rank #1
Range hydrophone arrays & transducers
medium difficulty · 12–24 months · Range programme funding
A
functional
NS · Dartmouth · sme · fit rank #2
Acoustic signature measurement services from an NS base
medium difficulty · 12–24 months · Instrumented range access; Secret facility
B
Cut 2Could get there — with the lift
product
NS · Great Village · sme · fit rank #3
Digital hydrophone strings for a shared NS range
medium difficulty
Certification
6 mo
Capital
6 mo
Plant
0 mo
Skills
12 mo
Ready2028 · meets 2031 window
B
Cut 3Must be attracted — with the pull
chain entry
NS · Dartmouth · large · fit rank #4
Establish an instrumented acoustic range off Nova Scotia (anchor operator)
high difficulty
  • Pull: anchor ranging contract
  • Pull: range site & environmental approvals
  • Pull: DRDC co-location
B

Weapons certification & sea-trial support Firm today

Torpedo and weapons-interface certification, sea-trial instrumentation and support.

Buyer program govRecurrence per dockingCertifications NATO SECRET, CGPPhases transition · steady state · mluFaC Invest
Envelope · transition
C$49M – C$98M
base C$70M · 40% addressable from NS
Allied SSK lifecycle multiple · row 4
Capacity vs demand · A
Available 6 · demand 2 trials per year
Redundancy (separate from capacity)
2 producing sources vs target 1 — adequate
“Can it make enough” and “is there a backup” are different questions (C9).
Sourcing mix
CA 50%shares est.
Supply network · tier = path distance (computed)
T1
Signature research & trial instrumentation (partial) — research support; not a certification range · 2 trials/yr
Producing
T1
Allied weapons certification support · 4 trials/yr
ProducingImport
Opportunity ladder · 1 candidates · pursuit tier computed, relationship never enters
Cut 1Already in the frame
functional
NS · Dartmouth · mid · fit rank #1
Host trial instrumentation & certification support
medium difficulty · 12–24 months · Programme funding; allied data-sharing
B

Curated sample analysis · as of 2026-09-10. Source attributions and benchmark estimates require review.